Financial services provider Edelweiss expects decline in real estate prices by around 60% over the next five to six years from its peak in the first quarter of 2008.
Edelweiss in a report on real estate sector said that “Property prices in India increased sharply over the past 6 to 7 years, rising two and a half times over 2001 prices. We expect a price correction of 58% in real terms from the peak.”
The report said that stating that the industry has so far witnessed around 24% correction in real terms, the industry witnessed 8 to 10 months decline of the expected 5 to 6 years.
It said that “We expect prices to correct by another around 30% in nominal terms in the next three years. However, prices in real terms, will continue to decline for about a year thereafter.”
Analyzing global property cycles across 15 countries, Edelweiss said that volumes are closely related to GDP growth and real returns on properties but share a weak relation with interest rates. It said that “From September 2006, the GDP growth rate has started falling and has come down significantly to 7.6 per cent in September 2008. We expect the rate to go down further to 6 per cent by FY10.”
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