Further Fall in Rates Expected

January 3, 2009	(Be the first to rate this story!)  Loading ...
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The unpredictable rate movements, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) moves and mixed response from the lenders has put borrowers in some confusion. The inflation monster which had pushed prices to unimaginable highs has finally been tamed. From as high as 12.91 percent this year, the inflation rate has almost come down to half of that. Does this mean borrowers can expect banks to reduce their home loan rates, if this trend persists? What is inflation? Inflation is an increase in prices and/or decline in purchasing power. An increase in the amount of currency in circulation results in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value, and rise in prices. It can also be defined as a persistent increase in the level of consumer prices or a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money, caused by an increase in available currency and credit beyond the proportion of available goods and services. Inflation is caused more by global rather than by domestic factors today.

The year 2008 has seen extreme turbulence in all quarters. The stock markets tumbled down, wiping away tons of investor wealth. The inflation numbers touched new peaks and crude oil prices shot up. Prices of essential commodities and food rose sharply. And so did home loan rates, impacting borrowers adversely, especially those who did not see a proportionate increase in their pay purses. High inflation rates are dealt with through a combination of market forces and government regulations. A host of RBI measures ensued. The RBI continuously monitors the monetary and liquidity conditions to maintain domestic macroeconomic and financial stability in the context of the global financial crisis . It hiked the repo rate and the cash reserve ratio (CRR), and then resorted to slashing them again. The repo rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from the RBI. A reduction in the repo rate will help banks get money at a cheaper rate. When the repo rate is increased borrowing from the RBI becomes more expensive. The CRR is the proportion of reserves commercial banks must keep with the RBI. It has been slashed to 5.5 from nine percent . With the inflation rate declining, the RBI is expected to announce a further reduction in the repo and reverse repo rates.

Lending rates had gone up after the RBI took measures to tighten the money supply in a bid to bring down inflation. With inflation well under check, can borrowers expect a further fall in rates? Most public sector banks had lowered rates making it affordable. Some banks are yet to offer the reduced rates to their existing customers. In such a scenario, a floating rate loan would be an ideal choice. Since there is a possibility of reduction in rates, floating in these turbulent times is better than being locked at a high rate. Those who are unsure can wait for the turbulence in the markets to quell. Real estate has been an ideal hedge against inflation over a long term. Limited land resources, a growing economy and increasing population make real estate an ideal investment avenue. When demand for housing goes up compared to supply, prices shoot upwards. With a fall in rates on the horizon and lucrative bargain deals offered by developers, it is time you seriously explored owing a house.

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